Every match, modeled & scored.
A Dixon–Coles + Elo engine locks a scoreline before kickoff, then grades itself against reality. No hindsight, no edits — just the receipts.
Live Scorecard
How the model is performing across every graded fixture.
Getting Sharper
Accuracy per round and the running cumulative accuracy — the model re-fits its Elo, form and calibration after every matchday.
Knockout Bracket
Paul's path to the trophy. Each tie shows the predicted scoreline; the predicted winner is highlighted, and played ties are graded once the result is in.
Predictions & Results
Every pick is locked before kickoff. Each card shows what Paul predicted next to what actually happened — then grades itself.
Futures
The long bets locked at the start of the tournament — shown against Paul's current live favourite, so you can watch them hold or drift.
Golden Boot Race
Today's live top-scorer standings with each contender's current goal count — plus Paul's updated pick, re-projected from goals scored and how deep each player's team is expected to run. ⚽ marks a penalty taker.
Title Race
Championship odds from 20,000 simulations of the actual set bracket. Ties already played are locked in as certain — that's why a team can show 100% to reach the next round while the round itself is still underway — and every tie still to be played is simulated by the model, path and all.
Behind the Scenes
Paul isn't a lucky octopus. Every pick is an ensemble of opponent-aware signals fused into expected goals, then a probability matrix over every scoreline.